Probability Analysis: Tools for SPY Options Trading

Hover over any point on the chart to see the probability of expiring above that strike price!

Expected Move Formula

\( EM = S \times \sigma \times std \times \sqrt{\tfrac{DTE}{365}} \)

SPY Expected Move

Expiration Oct 06 (3D) Oct 07 (4D) Oct 08 (5D) Oct 09 (6D) Oct 10 (7D) Oct 13 (10D) Oct 14 (11D) Oct 15 (12D) Oct 16 (13D) Oct 17 (14D) Oct 24 (21D) Oct 31 (28D) Nov 07 (35D) Nov 14 (42D) Nov 21 (49D) Nov 28 (56D) Dec 05 (63D) Dec 12 (70D) Dec 19 (77D) Dec 26 (84D)
lower 659.652 658.065 656.667 655.403 654.241 651.182 650.268 649.394 648.556 647.75 642.77 638.571 634.872 631.528 628.453 625.591 622.902 620.359 617.941 615.63
upper 680.168 681.755 683.153 684.417 685.579 688.638 689.552 690.426 691.264 692.07 697.05 701.249 704.948 708.292 711.367 714.229 716.918 719.461 721.879 724.19
expected move 10.258 11.845 13.243 14.507 15.669 18.728 19.642 20.516 21.354 22.16 27.14 31.339 35.038 38.382 41.457 44.319 47.008 49.551 51.969 54.28
Nianguang Zhao '25G, Master's in Financial Engineering at Lehigh University | Aspiring Quant | Cleared CFA Level 1
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